Wanted to get the obligatory Brexit comments out of the way first. MPs get to return to Westminster on Saturday to vote on the Brexit deal that PM Johnson was able to secure with the EU. Unsurprisingly it’s very rare for the HoC to sit on the weekend, and three of the four occasions included the outbreak of World War II, the Suez crisis and the Falkland Islands invasion. Sterling is currently up another 2% on the week (taking gains to just under 9% above the early September lows of 1.1959 just 6 weeks ago). Long dated Gilt yields are some 11 basis points higher on the week (and 30 bps above early September). However, tomorrow is another day as they say, so we’ll just have to wait and see if Mr Johnson can secure enough votes to get Brexit passed.
Away from the UK, China released weaker than expected Q3’19 GDP growth at 6%, below forecasts looking for 6.1%. I bet the UK (1.3%) and Germany (0%) would be over the moon to have growth at those kinds of levels. For those wanting a little lighter entertainment this weekend, and perhaps a bet as well, we have the Rugby World Cup Quarter Finals being played on Saturday and Sunday. Regular readers will remember that a “reverse NFA” star system has tended to work better with sporting events in the past. On that basis, England (7/2 odds on) would lose to Australia (13/5), New Zealand (1/5 odds on) would triumph over Ireland (7/2), Wales (4/11 odds on) beat France (2/1) and South Africa (1/7 odds on) win against Japan (9/2), and New Zealand win the overall tournament with a one-star only NFA rating.
Imagine there will be lots to talk about on Monday following a busy weekend.